here is a statement from bloomberg in the wake of the japanese earthquake:
analysts surveyed by bloomberg news were split over the direction of crude oil prices next week amid spreading unrest in the middle east and signals the global economic rebound is slowing. fifteen of 36 analysts, or 42 percent, forecast crude will advance through march 18. fifteen predicted futures will decline. six said there will be little change.
as surveys go, this statement gives us statistical proof that your guess is as good as mine.
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